In This Edition Of The Soulful Lens at Work: ​
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This week we explore how to quantify and communicate risk and uncertainty.

• INSPIRE: “Life is a combination of luck and skill.” Annie Duke, Thinking in Bets. Knowing which is which, is the key to success.
• IMPLEMENT: Read my latest article on "5 Ways to Communicate Uncertainty” and download the cheat sheet to help you prepare.
• INQUIRE: Check yourself to make sure you’re not creating false certainty.

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Hi Reader,

What’s so soulful about Risk and Uncertainty?

PM: “We’re not going to make the date”

Exec: “When will it be done?”

PM: “We’re shooting for next week.”

Exec: “So it will be done next week?”

PM:

How many times have you heard a conversation like this? Everyone is frustrated. The exec feels like she’s getting snowed, the PM doesn’t feel confident in giving an answer, and the team is working their fingers to the bone.

🚥 Maybe RAG status will help! We’ll color all items Red, Amber or Green. Then everyone will know whether we’re going to be on time, or if we’re at risk. How has that turned out for you?

The truth is that complex, creative work is uncertain. We have unknown variables that we’ve made assumptions for in planning. Usually best case assumptions.

To further exacerbate the problem, the language of uncertainty is frowned upon in corporate settings. Certainty is viewed as confidence and strength, even when it’s false certainty.

Transparency to uncertainty and risk has huge benefits. But first, we need

This week we’re looking at uncertainty and risk through two lenses:

1. Language to talk about risk and uncertainty.
2. Ways to communicate confidently when there is risk and uncertainty.

Soulfully ✨
​- Jardena

"Life is a combination of luck and skill"   Annie Duke | Thinking in Bets

I learned a lot from the Annie Duke, Poker Champion, book Thinking in Bets. ​ ​ She says the biggest mistake people make is attributing all good outcomes to skill; and all bad outcomes to being unlucky. ​ It’s like the Serenity Prayer, "grant me the serenity to accept the things I cannot change, courage to change the things I can, and wisdom to know the difference.” ​ Once you know this you work on the things you can change, and plan contingency for the things you can’t. ​ For more from Annie Duke on Risk check out her TED Talk: Risk Schmisk | Annie Duke | TEDxGeorgetown

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5 Ways to Communicate Uncertainty

“Until I have the answers, I can’t give an update.”

Have you ever felt this way?

It can be uncomfortable to communicate when you don’t have full information. But it can hurt your career if you don’t. Nothing strikes fear in the heart of executives more than feeling like their team is not in control. Language like “We don’t know” and “We can’t know” or the ever popular “We’re looking into it and when we know we’ll get back to you” are not going to win you points.

Remember Annie Duke, the Poker Champ? She cites the difference between chess and poker is that is poker you NEVER have all the information. You have to make bets based on your assessment of risk.

It’s the same with almost all things in business.

1. Put Uncertainty in a Container. In programmer language we call this a “wrapper”. A container can be a simple list of the Unknowns, or Risk Register. Putting your uncertainties in one place helps them feel…well…contained. It gives people confidence that even if we don’t know the answers, we have identified the problems.
2. Describe the Impact. You don’t have the information but you probably know the best and worst case. Ex. “If we don’t get the file by Tuesday we will push the date by 1 day for each day we wait.”
3. Share Contingency & Mitigation Plans. It’s helpful and grounding to know that you have thoughtfully considered alternatives. “We’re exploring three possible contingency plans.”
4. Reframe the Risk. Risk and uncertainty are a part of doing business! If there was no risk, there would be no reward, no competition. Navigating uncertainty where others can’t is how you succeed in the marketplace. Don’t be ashamed to openly discuss uncertainty.
5. Invite Input. Being 100% certain shuts people out. If you want a fuller picture of reality, allow for uncertainty. Many think being uncertain is weak, but paradoxically it builds strength.

Ready to tackle uncertainty head-on? Download the Google doc worksheet to start organizing your thoughts and create a clear path forward.

Get the Cheat Sheet Here!

TRY THIS: Are you creating false certainty? Make a list of the commitments you’ve made and next to each one list the assumptions, risks and unknowns for each. Assign a confidence level to each. (H,M,L)

Does the uncertainty of any of these commitments need to be shared with others?

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